Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 0.855311 0.999966 1.161419 1.354974 1.580745 1.835834 2.146040
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.635530 0.830548 1.073214 1.397378 1.819318 2.350366 3.070427
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.505636 0.715554 0.997858 1.405305 1.978871 2.758568 3.901307
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.414646 0.625937 0.928554 1.393614 2.091222 3.100643 4.676422
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.350096 0.558811 0.874436 1.386512 2.197955 3.437104 5.479821
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.305255 0.512123 0.840509 1.399722 2.330332 3.821481 6.402159
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.257714 0.452474 0.775635 1.350815 2.351739 4.027478 7.059273
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.243345 0.445579 0.795144 1.443257 2.618629 4.667790 8.530417
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.210494 0.400894 0.742847 1.401569 2.643254 4.891706 9.295948
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.182113 0.359949 0.691073 1.352361 2.645137 5.071287 9.998839
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.159075 0.325675 0.646679 1.310068 2.652550 5.258830 10.737194
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.146412 0.309968 0.635543 1.330666 2.784425 5.699281 12.029980
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.141769 0.310470 0.657519 1.423283 3.078878 6.508323 14.206752
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.132651 0.300298 0.656472 1.468127 3.280991 7.157919 16.147054
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.121460 0.283880 0.639812 1.476475 3.404630 7.656582 17.826973
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.110066 0.265260 0.615642 1.464193 3.479480 8.056529 19.337018
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.100368 0.249166 0.594914 1.456732 3.563911 8.487909 20.979456
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.093128 0.237924 0.583876 1.470610 3.700593 9.057177 23.031831
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.082799 0.217521 0.548237 1.419229 3.670372 9.224572 24.114391
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.081713 0.220547 0.570407 1.516348 4.026816 10.383534 27.879591
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.073429 0.203489 0.539746 1.472551 4.013063 10.610890 29.244090
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.065688 0.186785 0.507785 1.420853 3.971173 10.760098 30.420391
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.059103 0.172339 0.479907 1.376421 3.942947 10.941676 31.712282